2021 Aluminum Industry Review and 2022 Industry Outlook


In 2022, alumina production capacity will continue to expand, electrolytic aluminum production capacity will gradually recover, and aluminum prices will show a trend of rising first and then falling. The price range of LME is 2340-3230 US dollars / ton, and the price range of SMM (21535, -115.00, -0.53%) is 17500-24800 yuan / ton.

In 2021,the price of SMM increased by 31.82%, and its trend can be roughly divided into two stages: from the beginning of the year to mid-October, under the influence of overseas economic recovery, increased exports, dual-control policies on energy consumption and skyrocketing overseas natural gas prices, aluminum prices continue to rise. ; Since late October, China has intervened in coal prices, the logic of cost support has collapsed, and aluminum prices have fallen sharply. At the end of the year, due to the soaring energy prices in Europe, a rebound has begun.

1.Alumina production capacity continues to expand

From January to November 2021, the global alumina output accumulated to 127 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, of which Chinese alumina output was 69.01 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%. In 2022, there are many alumina projects to be put into production at home and abroad, mainly in Indonesia. In addition, the Jamalco alumina refinery with an annual output of 1.42 million tons is expected to restart in 2022.

As of December 2021, Chinese alumina built capacity is 89.54 million tons, and its operating capacity is 72.25 million tons. It is expected that the new production capacity will be 7.3 million tons in 2022, and the resumption capacity is conservatively estimated at 2 million tons.

Overall, the global alumina production capacity is in a state of excess.

2.2022 market outlook

In 2022, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates, and metal prices will be under overall pressure. The domestic fiscal policy is pre-positioned, the infrastructure investment will increase in the first half of the year, and the demand for aluminum will improve. Since the real estate regulation is not relaxed, we can focus on the demand for aluminum from new energy vehicles and photovoltaic industries. The supply side pays attention to the production of electrolytic aluminum. In the context of "double carbon", domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity may continue to be limited, but it is expected to be better than 2021. The estimated volume of production increases and resumption abroad in 2022 is also considerable.

Overall, the gap between the supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum will be narrowed in 2022. It will be tight in the first half of the year and improve in the second half of the year. The aluminum price will show a trend of rising first and then falling. The aluminum price range in London is 2340-3230 US dollars / ton, and the Shanghai aluminum price range is 17500-24800 yuan / ton.

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